Comparing vector–host and SIR models for dengue transmission.

TitleComparing vector–host and SIR models for dengue transmission.
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2013
AuthorsPandey A, Mubayi A, Medlock J
JournalMathematical biosciences
Volume246
Issue2
Pagination252-9
Date Published2013 Dec
ISSN1879-3134
KeywordsAedes, Animals, Bayes Theorem, Dengue Virus, Humans, Insect Vectors, Markov Chains, Models, Theoretical, Monte Carlo Method, Severe Dengue, Thailand
Abstract

Various simple mathematical models have been used to investigate dengue transmission. Some of these models explicitly model the mosquito population, while others model the mosquitoes implicitly in the transmission term. We study the impact of modeling assumptions on the dynamics of dengue in Thailand by fitting dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) data to simple vector–host and SIR models using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation. The parameter estimates obtained for both models were consistent with previous studies. Most importantly, model selection found that the SIR model was substantially better than the vector–host model for the DHF data from Thailand. Therefore, explicitly incorporating the mosquito population may not be necessary in modeling dengue transmission for some populations.

Alternate JournalMath Biosci