- Future Students
- Current Students
- Faculty & Staff
A model of spatial epidemic spread when individuals move within overlapping home ranges.
|Title||A model of spatial epidemic spread when individuals move within overlapping home ranges.|
|Publication Type||Journal Article|
|Year of Publication||2006|
|Authors||Reluga TC, Medlock J, Galvani AP|
|Journal||Bulletin of mathematical biology|
|Date Published||2006 Feb|
|Keywords||Algorithms, Animals, Communicable Diseases, Computer Simulation, Disease Outbreaks, Epidemiologic Methods, Humans, Locomotion, Models, Biological|
One of the central goals of mathematical epidemiology is to predict disease transmission patterns in populations. Two models are commonly used to predict spatial spread of a disease. The first is the distributed-contacts model, often described by a contact distribution among stationary individuals. The second is the distributed-infectives model, often described by the diffusion of infected individuals. However, neither approach is ideal when individuals move within home ranges. This paper presents a unified modeling hypothesis, called the restricted-movement model. We use this model to predict spatial spread in settings where infected individuals move within overlapping home ranges. Using mathematical and computational approaches, we show that our restricted-movement model has three limits: the distributed-contacts model, the distributed-infectives model, and a third, less studied advective distributed-infectives limit. We also calculate approximate upper bounds for the rates of an epidemic's spatial spread. Guidelines are suggested for determining which limit is most appropriate for a specific disease.
|Alternate Journal||Bull. Math. Biol.|