Title | A model of spatial epidemic spread when individuals move within overlapping home ranges. |
Publication Type | Journal Article |
Year of Publication | 2006 |
Authors | Reluga, TC, Medlock, J, Galvani, AP |
Journal | Bulletin of mathematical biology |
Volume | 68 |
Issue | 2 |
Pagination | 401-16 |
Date Published | 2006 Feb |
Keywords | Biological, Models |
Abstract | One of the central goals of mathematical epidemiology is to predict disease transmission patterns in populations. Two models are commonly used to predict spatial spread of a disease. The first is the distributed-contacts model, often described by a contact distribution among stationary individuals. The second is the distributed-infectives model, often described by the diffusion of infected individuals. However, neither approach is ideal when individuals move within home ranges. This paper presents a unified modeling hypothesis, called the restricted-movement model. We use this model to predict spatial spread in settings where infected individuals move within overlapping home ranges. Using mathematical and computational approaches, we show that our restricted-movement model has three limits: the distributed-contacts model, the distributed-infectives model, and a third, less studied advective distributed-infectives limit. We also calculate approximate upper bounds for the rates of an epidemic's spatial spread. Guidelines are suggested for determining which limit is most appropriate for a specific disease. |
DOI | 10.1007/s11538-005-9027-y |