Title | Optimal timing of disease transmission in an age-structured population. |
Publication Type | Journal Article |
Year of Publication | 2007 |
Authors | Reluga, TC, Medlock, J, Poolman, E, Galvani, AP |
Journal | Bulletin of mathematical biology |
Volume | 69 |
Issue | 8 |
Pagination | 2711-22 |
Date Published | 2007 Nov |
Keywords | Time Factors |
Abstract | It is a common medical folk-practice for parents to encourage their children to contract certain infectious diseases while they are young. This folk-practice is controversial, in part, because it contradicts the long-term public health goal of minimizing disease incidence. We study an epidemiological model of infectious disease in an age-structured population where virulence is age-dependent and show that, in some cases, the optimal behavior will increase disease transmission. This provides a rigorous justification of the concept of "endemic stability," and demonstrates that folk-practices may have been historically justified. |
DOI | 10.1007/s11538-007-9238-5 |